- 2026 年會有新冠狀病毒大流行嗎？2¢2%
Strong market-implied odds favoring no new coronavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect ongoing global respiratory virus surveillance showing stable, low SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates without evidence of a novel strain capable of triggering a WHO-declared pandemic. Recent CDC and WHO updates indicate COVID-19 activity remains regionally elevated in places but declining nationally in the United States, with influenza and RSV levels following typical seasonal patterns and no surge meeting pandemic thresholds. Cumulative case data through mid-2026 and continued monitoring via systems like COVID-NET underscore that current circulation stems from established variants rather than a new emergence. Realistic challenges include the potential for a highly immune-evasive or virulent variant to arise and spread rapidly before year-end, though historical patterns and current low transmissibility signals make such an outcome unlikely within the remaining timeframe.
規則
如果世界衛生組織（WHO）在市場建立至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間宣布爆發一場並非 COVID-19（SARS-CoV-2）的新 COVID 疫情，這個市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 結算依據將是世界衛生組織的官方公告。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。