- 2026 年 GDP 成長率會是負數嗎？3¢3%
Robust US economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 97% market-implied probability that real GDP growth for 2026 will remain positive. Official projections from the Federal Reserve and private analysts center on 2.3% annual growth, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-driven business fixed investment, and a labor market near full employment, with Q2 2026 GDP expanding at a 2.2% annualized rate and Q3 nowcasts near 2.8%. This pricing aggregates trader capital at risk, reflecting the low base rate of outright contraction amid current momentum. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp escalation in energy prices, abrupt monetary tightening, or a major external shock capable of tipping quarterly readings negative before year-end.
規則
如果美國經濟分析局（BEA）預計於 2027 年 1 月發布的 2026 年第四季「初值估算」所推算出的 2026 全年經季節性調整並年化的 GDP 成長率低於 0，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 GDP 報告將刊載於：https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product。 判定時只會採用首份可取得、標示為 2026 年第四季「初值估算」的 GDP 報告；該報告提供 2026 全年 GDP 成長率的初步數值。之後對資料所作的任何修訂或更新均不予考慮。
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