- 2026 年會發生自然災害嗎？5¢5%
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through mid-October. A strengthening El Niño, confirmed by NOAA and WMO monitoring, has increased wind shear and suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, consistent with historical patterns that lower major landfall odds during such phases. USGS records show peak magnitudes well below 8.5 this year, while Smithsonian data indicate all documented eruptions remain at VEI ≤4. NASA fireball monitoring has logged no qualifying bolides. With roughly 10 weeks remaining and typical seasonal frequencies for these extremes, new official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing geophysical surveillance represent the main near-term variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
規則
若在 2026 ET 期間符合下列任何一項條件，此市場將以「是」結算： - 5 級颶風在美國登陸 - 大型流星撞擊地球（10 kt 以上） - 大型火山爆發（VEI ≥6） - 發生規模 8.5 級或以上的地震 否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 若指定來源中的必要資訊仍未提供，此市場可能會保持開放，直到 2027年2月28日, 下午11:59 ET。 本市場的完整規則請見此處： https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
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