- Naim Qassem 到 2026年12月31日 前會卸任 Hezbollah 秘書長嗎？10¢10%
Naim Qassem remains Hezbollah’s secretary-general as of late October 2026, having assumed the role after Hassan Nasrallah’s 2024 killing and formal election the following month. The group faces sustained external pressure to disarm under the November 2024 ceasefire and June 2026 U.S.-mediated framework agreement, which requires Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese army deployment south of the Litani River, and restrictions on Hezbollah’s military capabilities. On October 28, Qassem publicly rejected any disarmament discussion while Israeli forces remain and dismissed recent Israeli election results, reinforcing the organization’s stance. Lebanese authorities have also pursued legal measures tied to seized explosives linked to the group, raising questions about institutional leverage over Hezbollah’s leadership structure. Traders weigh these enforcement timelines, regional diplomacy, and internal Shura Council dynamics when assessing the probability of a leadership transition by the market’s resolution date.
規則
如果 Naim Qassem 在市場建立至指定日期 下午11:59 ET 之間的任何時間不再擔任 Hezbollah 秘書長，則此市場將以「是」結算。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 如果 Naim Qassem 辭職、遭到拘留，或以其他方式失去職位，或在此市場的期限內被阻止履行 Hezbollah 秘書長的職責，則視為他已被解除職權。 此市場的主要結算依據將是 Hezbollah 的官方聲明；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。