- 伊朗會同意在 12月31日 前停止鈾濃縮嗎？4¢4%
Iran's refusal to transfer or relinquish its stockpile of enriched uranium underpins the high probability assigned to no agreement by December 31. Senior Iranian officials, including Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, stated in mid-October that not a single gram would leave the country, framing the material as a national asset and conditioning any nuclear discussions on prior US steps such as lifting the naval blockade, easing oil sanctions, and releasing frozen funds. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported on October 27 that inspectors remain unable to verify the status of approximately 440 kg of highly enriched uranium due to denied access since 2025 strikes, while mediation efforts involving Pakistan and others have produced no breakthrough on ending enrichment. US positions continue to emphasize meaningful limits, leaving the December deadline distant amid ongoing procedural and substantive divides.
規則
如果伊朗在2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET之前公開同意停止所有鈾濃縮活動，此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 伊朗正式承諾停止所有鈾濃縮活動，即符合結算為「是」的條件，無論是單方面宣布，還是作為與美國或以色列協議的一部分。 在本市場結算日期之前達成的任何協議或承諾均符合條件，不論該協議是否生效，以及何時生效。 伊朗同意在任何一段期間內停止所有鈾濃縮活動，均計入此條件。 伊朗同意以停止所有鈾濃縮活動作為更全面和平進程或協議的先決條件，即符合條件，即使該協議尚未敲定，或不屬於正式化和平協議的一部分。 僅限制或設定濃縮程度或品質上限的協議不符合條件，例如將濃縮程度降至武器級門檻以下。 此市場結算的主要依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。