- 2026 年大西洋颶風季期間，颶風數量會是：1-3 嗎？97¢97%
- 2026 年大西洋颶風季期間，颶風數量會是：4-6 嗎？2¢2%
- 2026 年大西洋颶風季期間會有名為 7+ 的颶風嗎？<1¢<1%
Strong El Niño-driven wind shear has kept Atlantic hurricane formation minimal through mid-October 2026, leaving only one hurricane (Isaias) so far and supporting the market’s overwhelming 97.6% implied probability on a 1–3 total. The season produced nine named storms by October 15, but eight remained tropical storms amid persistently high vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air tied to a strong super El Niño. Isaias became the first and only hurricane on October 7–8 in the Gulf of Mexico—the latest first hurricane in the satellite era—and briefly reached major (Category 3) strength before landfall. Official National Hurricane Center tracking and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) stand at just 18 units, roughly 83% below the 1991–2020 average. Historical analogs from prior super El Niño years show very low odds of additional hurricanes after early October, with the season typically winding down quickly. The November window remains open, but model consensus and steering patterns favor limited development. A realistic challenge to the 1–3 range would require an unusually favorable late-season window—such as reduced shear coinciding with a Gulf or western Caribbean disturbance—yet current conditions and climatology make even a second hurricane unlikely.
規則
本市場將根據市場建立至 2026年11月30日 下午11:59 ET 期間，大西洋被歸類為颶風的風暴數量結算。 若指定期間內大西洋沒有被歸類為颶風的風暴，本市場將以「0」結算。 颶風是最大持續風速達 74 mph 或以上的熱帶氣旋（薩菲爾－辛普森颶風風力等級的 1 級或以上），詳見 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php。 本市場可根據 NHC 首次發布、報告符合條件之颶風的公告進行結算，不受任何後續公告、撤回、最佳路徑修訂或重新分析影響，即使這些內容下修了該風暴的強度亦然。官方數量將根據 NHC（nhc.noaa.gov）發布的公告確定。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。