- 1 月的 Fed 決策會不會無人持異議？54¢54%
- 1 月的 Fed 決策會有人持異議嗎？19¢19%
- 會有兩人對美聯準會 1 月的決定持異議嗎？5¢5%
- 會有三人反對美聯準會一月的決定嗎？13¢13%
- 會有四人或以上對美聯儲 1 月的決定持異議嗎？6¢6%
Trader consensus on zero dissents at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting (57% implied probability) reflects the recent shift toward greater policy alignment after the September 2026 unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% federal funds target range. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal—core PCE near 3% and headline measures around 3.4-3.7%—combined with a stable labor market (unemployment near 4.1-4.2%) has supported a hawkish tilt, with most participants viewing another increase as likely appropriate by year-end. Recent meetings show mixed but contained splits: multiple dissents occurred earlier in 2026 (including 9-3 in July favoring hikes), yet the September vote unified around risk-management tightening amid AI-driven demand pressures and energy shocks. Market-implied odds favor consensus because incoming October and December data, plus the October 27-28 and December 8-9 decisions, could reinforce or erode that unity before the January meeting. Elevated uncertainty around the exact pace of further tightening keeps smaller probabilities on one or three dissents, consistent with the committee's historical pattern of infrequent large fractures when the median path aligns with incoming releases.
規則
1 月的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議定於 2027年1月26日至27日 舉行。政策決定將於 1月27日 東部時間 下午2:00 公布，之後聯準會主席將於約 下午2:30 ET 舉行記者會。 本市場將根據聯邦公開市場委員會 1 月貨幣政策會議記錄的異議票數結算，具體而言，是對聯邦基金利率決策投下異議票的票數。 此市場的結算依據為 FOMC 在其預定於 2027年1月26日至27日 舉行的會議後發布的聲明，日期依據官方行事曆：https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm。 FOMC 發布其 1 月會議相關數據的聲明後，本市場即可結算；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。