This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent official forecasts for Hong Kong on September 5 indicate a maximum temperature of 30–31°C under partly cloudy skies with a moderate chance of brief showers, consistent with typical early-September monsoon conditions and near the monthly average high of 31°C. Light southwesterly winds and humidity levels of 70–95% are expected to moderate daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and any convective activity could cap peaks below model maxima. Trader consensus between 30°C and 31°C reflects the narrow spread in ensemble guidance and the influence of short-term steering patterns on exact timing of any rain, with limited risk of significant deviation absent an unexpected shift in the subtropical ridge.