- 2026 年會爆發漢他病毒大流行嗎？2¢2%
Hantavirus outbreaks remain driven by rodent reservoirs and aerosolized exposure to urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes virus as the sole strain showing limited human-to-human transmission only under prolonged close contact. Recent 2026 clusters in Argentina (over 100 seasonal cases) and Chile, including the contained MV Hondius cruise ship event with 11–13 cases and three deaths, demonstrate localized zoonotic spillover rather than sustained community spread, consistent with CDC and WHO data showing no pandemic-capable traits. Official alerts emphasize prevention and surveillance without epidemic declarations. While model projections or unexpected viral adaptation could theoretically alter dynamics, current epidemiological patterns and absence of efficient airborne or casual transmission underpin the 98.7% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic.
規則
如果世界衛生組織在市場建立至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 之間的官方公開通訊中，明確將漢他病毒、漢他病毒肺症候群（HPS）、腎症候群出血熱（HFRS）或與漢他病毒相關的疫情稱為「大流行」，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 明確稱述包括世衛組織的官方聲明、報告、新聞簡報或出版物，且其中清楚將疫情描述為「大流行」。單是國際關注公共衛生緊急事件（PHEIC）並不符合條件，除非該事件也被描述為大流行。 此市場判定的主要依據將是世衛組織的官方通訊。亦可參考可信報導的共識。
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