- 法國會在 2027年12月31日 前拖欠債務嗎？7¢7%
France faces elevated fiscal pressures, with public debt near 119% of GDP, a projected 5.4% deficit in 2026, and plans for €54 billion in adjustments to reach 5% in 2027 amid sluggish 0.5% growth. Political fragmentation in the National Assembly has complicated budget passage under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government, contributing to wider OAT-Bund spreads above 110 basis points and higher borrowing costs. However, France’s status as a major euro-area economy, substantial domestic debt holdings, average debt maturity near eight years, and expected ECB backstop make outright default by late 2027 highly improbable. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.4% “No” price aligns with assessments that ongoing consolidation efforts and institutional safeguards will avert insolvency, even if rating reviews and yields remain under scrutiny through the 2027 presidential cycle.
規則
如果法國政府在市場建立至 2027年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 之間的任何時間，未能支付任何法國政府票據、債券或國庫券的預定款項，則此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 如果 Standard & Poor’s、Moody’s 或 Fitch 在符合資格期間公開將任何法國主權債務列為違約，則將符合結算為「是」的條件。 結算來源將為法國財政部（Agence France Trésor）、Standard & Poor’s、Moody’s 和 Fitch 的官方資訊。
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