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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader positioning on potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE near 3.3%. The July FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, though three dissents favored a 25-basis-point increase amid solid economic growth, stable unemployment, and energy-price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Markets now embed a higher probability of tightening than earlier in the year, with futures reflecting limited room for easing. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, and any updated dot-plot signals on the policy path.