- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?64¢
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?35¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market-implied odds assign a 64% probability to pauses at each of the remaining FOMC meetings through September, reflecting trader consensus that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady given persistent inflation pressures and a still-resilient labor market. Recent economic releases, including CPI prints and employment data through mid-2026, have reinforced expectations that the policy rate path will remain higher for longer than earlier projections anticipated. Fed communications continue to emphasize data dependence without signaling imminent easing, aligning with current Treasury yield levels and reduced market pricing for near-term cuts. The minimal 1.1% odds on a September cut highlight the significant hurdles posed by above-target inflation metrics, while the 35% allocation to “other” outcomes captures residual uncertainty around potential labor-market softening or revised guidance. Traders are now focused on the September CPI release and FOMC dot plot for any material shifts in this baseline.