- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?2¢
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?13¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Geopolitical easing around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran have reduced the supply-risk premium that drove Brent and WTI prices above $100 earlier in 2026, leaving front-month futures near $85 per barrel as of late August. This level sits roughly 40% below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27, with elevated U.S. exports, rebuilding Gulf output, and softer Chinese demand keeping inventories from tightening enough to support a sustained rally. Analyst forecasts from J.P. Morgan and the EIA project Brent averaging $85–86 in Q3 before easing toward $78–80 by year-end, reflecting ample non-OPEC supply and muted global consumption growth. Key near-term catalysts include weekly EIA inventory data, any OPEC+ production adjustments, and diplomatic signals that could either re-escalate or further normalize Hormuz transits. Trader-implied odds for a new record this year remain low absent a multi-million-barrel daily supply shock.