- 2027 年前中國和菲律賓會發生軍事衝突嗎？24¢24%
Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated due to repeated coast guard and maritime militia confrontations near Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, and other features in the South China Sea, including water-cannon incidents, obstructions of resupply and medical missions, and a near-doubling of Chinese vessels monitored in September. Both governments have signaled restraint, with Chinese officials stressing a preference for peace and the Philippines suspending military hotlines while pursuing diplomatic protests and Code of Conduct negotiations ahead of a year-end deadline. The Philippines’ mutual defense arrangements with the United States and joint patrols with allies further discourage direct armed clashes between national militaries. Traders appear to view these dynamics as sustaining grey-zone competition rather than triggering a full military clash before 2027.
規則
如果在市場建立至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 期間，中國（中華人民共和國）與菲律賓的軍事力量發生軍事衝突，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 「軍事衝突」是指任何涉及使用武力的事件，例如使用近戰武器、導彈攻擊、砲擊、交火，或中國與菲律賓軍事力量之間其他形式的直接軍事交戰。非暴力行動，例如警告射擊、向無人居住區域砲擊，或飛彈發射後落入領海或穿越空域，均不足以使此市場判定為「是」。故意撞擊船隻並造成重大損壞（例如船體出現破洞），或由一艘船擊沉另一艘軍艦，將納入判定「是」的考量；但輕微損壞（刮痕、凹痕）則不會。 注意：中國海警（CCG）屬於軍方，但菲律賓海岸警衛隊（PCG）不屬於軍方。 本市場的結算依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
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