- 到12月31日，是否會有任何AI模型在Chatbot Arena中達到至少1550分？14¢
- 到12月31日，是否會有任何AI模型在Chatbot Arena中達到至少1600分？7¢
- 到12月31日，會有任何AI模型在Chatbot Arena上達到至少1650分嗎？7¢
- 到12月31日，是否會有任何AI模型在Chatbot Arena中達到至少1700分？3¢
- 到12月31日，是否會有任何AI模型在聊天機器人競技場的得分達到至少1530？50¢
- 到12月31日，是否會有任何AI模型在聊天機器人競技場的分數達到至少1520？96¢
- 到12月31日，是否會有任何AI模型在Chatbot Arena達到至少1540分？32¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Recent model releases from Anthropic, Google, and Alibaba continue to drive gains on the LMSYS Arena leaderboard, where top overall Elo scores hover near 1505-1508 as of early September 2026. Claude Fable 5 and Opus variants lead the text arena, while fresh entries like Gemini 3.8 Flash (1494 pts) and Qwen3.8-Max-0902 demonstrate rapid iteration in coding and agentic tasks. Competitive pressure among frontier labs, including Meta's Muse Spark updates and open-weight challengers from Moonshot and Zhipu, fuels frequent capability jumps. With roughly four months remaining until year-end, further post-training refinements, larger context windows, and specialized variants could push scores higher, though historical patterns show incremental rather than explosive monthly gains. Traders should monitor upcoming developer conferences and lab announcements for catalysts that could shift the threshold.