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This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s September meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal expansion and fuel supply disruptions have led traders to price in a high probability of no change at the Bank of Russia’s September 11 meeting. After cutting the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% in July, the central bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% and raised its projected average key rate path to 14.5–14.6% for the year, citing stronger-than-expected fiscal stimulus, structural budget deficits, and temporary fuel production shortfalls linked to refinery attacks. These factors have slowed the pace of easing compared with earlier meetings and reduced the scope for further cuts this year. Market pricing of roughly 68% odds for no change in September reflects this caution, with a 30% chance of another modest reduction and negligible probability of a hike, consistent with the bank’s emphasis on monitoring inflation expectations and external conditions before additional easing.