- 英格蘭銀行會在 2026 年升息嗎？99¢
Market-implied odds for a Bank of England rate hike in 2026 stand at 94% for Yes, reflecting trader consensus on at least one 25-basis-point increase amid upside inflation risks. The primary driver is the energy price shock from Middle East tensions, which has lifted CPI projections toward 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027, prompting markets to price a November hike to 4% from the current 3.75% level and additional tightening by year-end. Recent MPC communications highlight concerns over second-round wage and price effects, with hawkish members consistently favoring restriction. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the outcome include rapid de-escalation in energy markets, softer incoming data showing contained pass-through, or a shift in the MPC's risk assessment toward patience at the November meeting.
規則
如果英格蘭銀行的 Bank Rate 在市場建立至 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 期間的任何時間上調，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 必須等到 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 過後，本市場才能判定為「否」。 本市場的主要判定來源為英格蘭銀行官方網站（https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/），但也可採用可信報導的一致結論。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。