- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?0¢0%
The Iranian regime's survival through September 30, 2026, reflects its demonstrated resilience amid sustained external military pressure and internal strains. Following the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes, power transferred rapidly to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, enabling the Islamic Republic to maintain core institutions, command structures, and diplomatic engagement without collapse. Recent developments include Iran's September 2026 UN General Assembly proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for eased sanctions and renewed talks, alongside ongoing economic sanctions and domestic protests that authorities have contained. Traders assign near-certain odds to continuity because the system has absorbed leadership decapitation, infrastructure damage, and elite infighting while preserving functional governance. Late-breaking shifts in military outcomes, elite defections, or mass unrest could still alter trajectories, though none materialized before the resolution window.
Quy tắc
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.