- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?50¢
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?50¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Recent polls from Emerson College and others place the Texas U.S. Senate race in a statistical dead heat between Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico, with support splitting along generational lines and key issues such as the economy and immigration. Talarico's heavy early advertising advantage has helped sustain Democratic momentum in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in decades, while Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated Republican support but left room for undecided voters. Upcoming scheduled debates and the final weeks of campaigning could shift turnout among swing blocs, keeping implied probabilities tightly balanced as traders weigh the limited historical precedent for a Democratic statewide win.