- Will Left Party (V) win less than 5% of all valid votes?4¢
- Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?29¢
- Will Left Party (V) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?53¢
- Will Left Party (V) win at least 9% of all valid votes?19¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Left Party (V) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent Novus polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election places Vänsterpartiet at 8.4%, within the 7–9% band that commands the highest market probability. Multiple August surveys (Novus, Indikator, Demoskop, Ipsos) have shown V support clustered between roughly 6.8% and 9.0%, with the latest Novus reading marking a modest +1.0 point gain even as Social Democrats fell sharply. This stability reflects V’s established voter base on welfare, housing, and inequality issues amid a tightening overall race between the centre-left and Tidö blocs. V has drawn some support from the shrinking Social Democrat electorate while facing limited upside from first-time or swing voters. With the election now days away and no major party-specific shocks reported, trader consensus aligns with the narrow historical and current polling range for the Left Party rather than a breakout above 9% or a drop below 5–7%.