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Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
United Russia maintains its commanding position in the September 2026 State Duma elections due to its status as the ruling party with consistent presidential backing, including Vladimir Putin's public endorsement at the party's recent congress. The Kremlin-aligned electoral framework, including three-day voting, single-member district advantages, and administrative measures that have barred or restricted opposition groups such as Yabloko, further reinforces its path to securing the largest seat share. Recent party-list announcements featuring high-profile figures like Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and war veterans align with efforts to consolidate patriotic support amid ongoing conflict. While polls indicate United Russia leads but faces some erosion in raw vote share compared to prior cycles, the system's design and limited viable challengers sustain trader consensus on its victory. Late developments such as widespread candidate disqualifications or major shifts in the security situation could theoretically alter margins, though structural barriers make significant upsets improbable before the vote concludes.