- Liệu Nga có thử vũ khí hạt nhân trước ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026 không?2¢
- Liệu Nga có thử vũ khí hạt nhân trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026 không?6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya and withdrew its CTBT ratification in 2023, yet has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since October 1990. Recent developments include successful Sarmat ICBM launches and Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile flights in 2025-2026, alongside strategic force exercises, but these involve delivery systems rather than warhead detonations. Official Russian statements tie any potential resumption to comparable U.S. or other actions, while U.S. policy has emphasized simulations and subcritical experiments. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026 amid ongoing modernization, verification concerns, and escalation risks in active conflicts. Resolution depends on credible reporting of an explosive yield event within the specified window.