- Netanyahu rời chức trước cuối năm 2026?49¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Israeli elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, following the Knesset’s July dissolution represent the central driver of trader positioning on Netanyahu remaining prime minister through year-end. Recent polls show his Likud party trailing or tied with opposition figures such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, with the broader right-wing bloc projected below the 61-seat threshold needed for a majority. Ongoing public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran conflicts, combined with Netanyahu’s criminal proceedings and the risk of an ICC warrant applying once he loses office, continues to weigh on support. Coalition partners face internal pressures over issues including Haredi draft exemptions and settlement policy. Any post-election coalition negotiations or shifts in polling momentum ahead of the vote could still alter the implied probability reflected in current market prices.