- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?64¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling trends position the SPD near the 28% threshold ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, supporting the 64% implied probability for an "over" outcome. The latest Forsa survey from late August shows the party at exactly 28%, up five points from February levels, while INSA and Infratest dimap readings from July and August place it at 29%. This late stabilization follows earlier weakness in the 23-27% range and reflects gains for Minister President Manuela Schwesig's party amid a stable AfD lead at 35-37%. With the election imminent, traders appear to weigh the risk of modest further movement above or below the line in final weeks, consistent with historical volatility in state-level results.