- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 4?12¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 4?82¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely reach 25–26°C, driven by northeasterly winds at 10–20 km/h, persistent cloud cover, and light rain or drizzle that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions follow a period of elevated humidity and temperatures near 30–31°C during the day, with model consensus pointing to a low around 25°C amid typical early-September patterns influenced by regional moisture. Trader emphasis on a 27°C low reflects uncertainty in short-term model runs and potential for slightly warmer outcomes if winds weaken, though updated data releases from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could shift implied probabilities as the overnight period approaches.