- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 7?98¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C or below on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong consensus among global and regional forecast models supports a minimum temperature of 20°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on September 7, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability. Clear skies and light northeasterly flow overnight favor modest radiative cooling under a stable boundary layer, with ensemble guidance from sources such as GFS and Korea Meteorological Administration consistently projecting lows of 19–21°C. Recent observations show daytime maxima near 28–29°C and dew points supporting efficient nighttime temperature drops without significant moisture or frontal interference. This positioning aligns with historical early-September climatology for the region. The primary uncertainty remains minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing or unexpected cloud development, which could shift the observed minimum by 1–2°C and open lower-probability outcomes.