- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on September 4?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for a 21°C minimum in Seoul/Incheon on September 4 rests on official Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and convergent model guidance showing clear skies under a high-pressure ridge, with northeast winds maintaining overnight lows near 21°C. Recent observations confirm daytime highs of 30–31°C followed by radiational cooling under minimal cloud cover, aligning with early September climatology where minimums typically range 17–22°C. Model runs indicate stable atmospheric conditions with dew points around 16–18°C and no incoming frontal systems through the overnight period. A shift in steering flow or unexpected increase in low-level moisture could allow temperatures to dip to 19–20°C, though current consensus places low probability on such deviations before resolution.