- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on September 7?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on September 7?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 7?21¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 7?37¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 7?17¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 7?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 7?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate clear skies and light northwest winds overnight into September 7, supporting radiative cooling that favors a low in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit for New York City. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64.3°F for the date and follows recent days with similar stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38.5% implied probability for 64–65°F and 28% for 62–63°F, incorporates these factors along with typical model agreement on the absence of stronger cold advection or precipitation. Minor variations in exact minimum readings could arise from urban heat island effects or precise timing of any wind shifts, though current guidance shows low uncertainty around the leading bins.