- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 14?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 14?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 14?99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Trader consensus strongly favors 26°C as Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on October 14, 2026, reflecting official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and real-time observations. The HKO issued a daily range of 26–31°C, consistent with regional station data showing overnight minima clustered near 26°C amid easterly flow, moderate humidity (60–90%), and limited overnight cooling. Model consensus and climatological baselines for mid-October support this narrow band, with current readings at the Observatory station recording a minimum of 26.9°C since midnight. A realistic challenge would require unexpected radiative cooling under clearer skies or a sharper wind shift, but prevailing conditions and the proximity to resolution make significant deviation from 26°C unlikely.
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.