- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?1¢
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31?2¢
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30?7¢
- Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The Supreme Court’s June 29, 2026, 5-4 ruling blocked President Trump’s initial attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, preserving her position while litigation over “for cause” removal under the Federal Reserve Act continues in lower courts. The decision underscored the central bank’s statutory independence from at-will presidential firings, distinguishing it from other agencies amid allegations of pre-appointment mortgage misstatements that Cook has denied as inadvertent. Trump’s August 2026 renewed notice and Cook’s formal rebuttal have restarted the procedural process, with markets pricing in sustained uncertainty around her 14-year term ending in 2038. Key near-term catalysts include lower-court rulings on notice requirements and any new factual findings, alongside broader monetary policy signals on inflation and rates that could influence political dynamics.