- Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?26¢
- Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?50¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Syria by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The occurrence of a qualifying meeting must be confirmed by the resolution sources by the resolution date. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.
Syria and Israel have pursued US-mediated security talks since early 2026, including a January Paris meeting that established an intelligence-sharing and de-escalation mechanism, followed by an August 23 high-level session in Jordan between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Mossad chief Roman Gofman. These discussions center on halting Israeli strikes and incursions into southern Syria, reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, and addressing Israeli red lines on Turkish influence, southern demilitarization, and Druze protections, while Syria prioritizes withdrawal to pre-December 2024 lines. Damascus has repeatedly signaled commitment to diplomacy to support reconstruction and stability, despite ongoing border incidents. The recent Jordan talks and sustained US involvement represent the clearest near-term catalysts for additional diplomatic engagement, though core territorial and security gaps persist.