- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 4?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on September 4?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on September 4?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest official forecasts from Environment Canada project a high of 25°C for Toronto on September 4 under a mix of sun and cloud with light southerly winds and humidex near 30. Ensemble guidance and other models cluster between 23–26°C, reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and weak frontal influences rather than any strong warm or cool advection. Market-implied odds, with 25–26°C leading at over two-thirds combined probability, align with this consensus while assigning lower weight to outliers above 27°C or below 24°C. Historical early-September averages near 24°C provide context, but traders appear focused on the most recent model runs and official updates expected overnight.