- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 4?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 4?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 4?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover from a developing weather system are capping daytime heating in Tokyo on September 4, keeping maximum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 20s °C range according to consensus forecasts. Northeasterly flow, high humidity near 80%, and widespread precipitation (70-90% chance) suppress solar insolation and enhance evaporative cooling, with models showing highs clustered near 26-28°C. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 34.5% implied probability for 27°C and 24.5% for 26°C, aligns with this guidance while the spread across 25-29°C captures remaining uncertainty in rain timing, intensity, and any partial clearing. Historical early-September baselines around 28-30°C underscore the cooling influence of current conditions. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency briefings ahead of the 24-hour window will likely refine these odds.