- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 6?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 6?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 6?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including the Met Office and regional models, indicate Shanghai's September 6 high will likely reach 29–30°C under partly cloudy to clearing skies with light northeast-to-northwest winds. This aligns with late-summer subtropical conditions where daytime heating supports maxima near seasonal norms of 27–29°C, tempered by residual moisture and 30–40% rain chances that could limit peaks. Trader consensus, reflected in the 51% implied probability for 30°C versus 26.5% for 29°C, tracks these model outputs and recent stable readings around 30°C on September 5, with limited upside to 31°C absent stronger solar insolation or reduced cloud cover. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine resolution thresholds ahead of market close.