- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C or below on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 5?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 5?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 5?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 5?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on September 5?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 5?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
A cold front advancing from southern Brazil on September 5 is the dominant driver moderating São Paulo’s daytime maximum, replacing earlier sunny conditions with increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and southerly flow of cooler polar air. Official forecasts converge on highs near 23 °C, with model spreads reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing, rainfall intensity, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. September climatology places the long-term average high around 24–25 °C, so the front’s arrival suppresses temperatures below recent values while keeping them above typical winter levels. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 21–23 °C range because small differences in convective timing or wind direction can determine whether the maximum registers at the lower or upper end of that narrow band.