- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on September 8?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on September 8?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on September 8?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on September 8?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from DWD, ECMWF, and GFS indicate a peak temperature near 30–32 °C in Munich on September 8, 2026, under clear skies and southerly flow. This warm-air advection combined with strong September insolation and minimal cloud cover supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 32 °C (54 % implied probability). Recent model runs show consistent daytime maxima in the low-30s °C range, well above the 1991–2020 climatological high of ~21 °C and approaching the all-time September 8 record of 29.6 °C. Light winds and dry conditions limit mixing and evaporative cooling, reinforcing the upper end of the distribution. Traders are pricing in limited downside risk from overnight model shifts, with resolution hinging on official DWD observations the following day.