- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 5?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on September 5?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on September 5?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on September 5?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on September 5?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 29°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Clearing high pressure and reduced southeasterly winds after Thursday’s cool, wet cut-off low are positioning Cape Town for a mild spring day on September 5, with official and ensemble forecasts converging on a maximum near 23–24 °C. Recent model runs (including GFS, ECMWF, and local guidance) show skies clearing rapidly overnight into Saturday, allowing strong solar insolation under light-to-moderate southeast flow that will limit overnight cooling but moderate daytime heating. This setup typically produces a diurnal range of roughly 11–14 °C, lifting afternoon readings from morning lows near 11–13 °C into the low-to-mid 20s. Historical September climatology for Cape Town averages 18–20 °C, so current guidance represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the post-frontal ridge. Market-implied probabilities reflect this tight consensus: 24 °C leads at 43.5 %, followed by 23 °C (23 %) and 25 °C (20.5 %), while tails below 22 °C or above 26 °C carry low single-digit odds. Minor model spread—some solutions peaking at 21 °C under stronger winds, others touching 25 °C with lighter flow—explains the clustering around the central outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest high-resolution runs and South African Weather Service guidance, which continue to favor the 23–24 °C band absent any unexpected cloud or wind surge. The next key updates will come from overnight model cycles and morning observational data.