- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 7?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on September 7?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on September 7?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on September 7?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate southerly flow advecting milder air across the Netherlands ahead of an approaching front, with partly cloudy skies expected to permit sufficient insolation for a daily maximum near 25–26 °C in Amsterdam on September 7. Subtle differences between the leading outcomes stem from variations in predicted cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local wind speeds, which can shift the precise peak by 1 °C. Trader consensus, reflected in the tight 44.5 %–37.5 % split, captures this narrow uncertainty range while assigning low probability to 27 °C or higher, consistent with the absence of stronger warm-air advection or clear-sky conditions in current guidance. Updated model runs and official briefings later today will refine the exact threshold.