- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?25¢
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?1¢
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?72¢
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?4¢
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for the October FOMC decision. Recent July meeting minutes revealed heightened concerns over broad-based price pressures from energy shocks and supply disruptions, prompting three dissents for an immediate hike and signals that further tightening could be needed if readings fail to moderate. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1%, have tempered immediate action expectations, supporting the 71.5% market-implied probability of no change while assigning 24.5% odds to a 25 basis point increase. Upcoming September data releases and the FOMC's September decision will serve as key catalysts influencing the path to October.