- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1%
- Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?15¢15%
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?81¢81%
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1%
Recent energy price surges have driven euro area headline inflation to 3.8 percent in September, prompting the ECB to signal a likely 25-basis-point deposit rate increase at its December 17 meeting while holding rates steady at 2.5 percent in October. Professional forecasters revised 2026 and 2027 inflation expectations higher primarily due to energy costs, though core measures and wage growth remain contained and longer-term expectations stay anchored near 2 percent. Tightening financial conditions, including higher bond yields, are projected to dampen growth and inflation further out, supporting trader consensus around one measured hike followed by a pause. Data-dependent decisions and fresh projections due in December continue to anchor positioning for this outcome over larger moves or holds.
Quy tắc
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.