- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be 3,200,000 or more?1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be less than 2,200,000?1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?44¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 3,000,000 and 3,200,000?6¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,800,000 and 3,000,000?34¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?17¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wisconsin’s open 2026 gubernatorial contest between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany remains a toss-up, with recent polls showing margins under 4 points and analysts rating it competitive. This dynamic, combined with the state’s strong historical turnout patterns in close races and high engagement from both parties’ bases, keeps trader probabilities clustered tightly across the 2.6M–3M ranges. Primary turnout reached 27.2% of voting-age population, slightly above prior cycles, while lingering effects from Democratic candidate shifts and independent voter mobilization efforts add uncertainty. No major late-breaking catalysts have yet shifted expectations ahead of November 3.