- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?78¢
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?1¢
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?7¢
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?13¢
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has established it as the top performer on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, outscoring OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and prior Claude variants in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. This development underpins the market’s 78% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best large language model by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on sustained leadership in the current competitive cycle. OpenAI at 13% and Google at 7.4% trail due to comparatively lower recent benchmark results, while smaller labs remain at minimal odds amid limited frontier releases. Upcoming catalysts include potential follow-on updates from major labs, though Anthropic’s momentum and evaluation leads suggest limited near-term shifts unless new models demonstrate clear superiority on standardized tests.