- Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?59¢
- Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?48¢
- Will Warsh say "Good Day" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?36¢
- Will Warsh say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?79¢
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?1¢
- Will Warsh say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?13¢
- Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?10¢
- Will Warsh say "Too Late" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?25¢
- Will Warsh’s remarks not air?2¢
- Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?75¢
- Will Warsh say "Prediction" or "Predictive" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?36¢
- Will Warsh say "CapEx" or "Capital Expenditure" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?65¢
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote on August 28, his first as Fed Chair, centers trader focus on whether he will emphasize long-term structural reforms and a leaner communications framework over near-term rate signals. Markets currently price the Fed funds rate at 5.25–5.50 percent with roughly 72 percent odds of a September hold, reflecting sticky core PCE and services inflation alongside slowing Q2 GDP. Warsh has repeatedly stated he is “not constrained by market prices” and prefers to address regime-change questions through ongoing task forces rather than explicit forward guidance. Recent bond-yield volatility and Treasury buyback activity have heightened sensitivity to any hawkish reaffirmation of the 2 percent target or dovish acknowledgment of labor-market softening. The speech arrives 19 days before the September FOMC, where any shift in perceived reaction function could reprice rate expectations and risk assets.