- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?8¢
- Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?2¢
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?14¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Putin, reelected in 2024 to a term extending to 2030, maintains firm institutional control through the security services, loyal elites, and constitutional provisions that route any sudden vacancy to the prime minister followed by elections within three months. Recent developments include Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure prompting Russian countermeasures, modest declines in state polling approval to around 67 percent amid rising war costs and budget deficits, and elite reshuffles without public signals of challenge. Speculation in Western analysis centers on succession risks tied to his age of 73 and lack of a designated heir, yet verified reporting shows continued public appearances, party congress activity ahead of September State Duma elections, and no confirmed health or removal triggers. Trader-implied probabilities remain low for near-term departure, reflecting the barriers posed by centralized power and the absence of acute, verifiable catalysts for change.