- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,000,000 and 5,500,000?37¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?28¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 6,000,000 and 6,500,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be 6,500,000 or more?4¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be less than 4,000,000?2¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 4,500,000 and 5,000,000?26¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus centers on 5–6 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November 2026 gubernatorial contest, reflecting historical patterns for off-year elections in the state. Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro maintains a consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican Stacy Garrity, with recent surveys showing him near or above 50 percent. This dynamic, combined with Garrity’s limited name recognition, shapes expectations for moderate enthusiasm and turnout. Pennsylvania’s 2022 gubernatorial election produced roughly 5.27 million votes, while 2024 presidential turnout reached 7.03 million; off-year races typically fall between these levels. Recent municipal and primary voting data indicate rising suburban participation and sustained urban engagement, supporting the probability mass around 5–5.5 million and 5.5–6 million. No major late-breaking events have altered these baseline factors as of early September 2026.