- Will American Doctor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?38¢
- Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?7¢
- Will One in a Million win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?14¢
- Will Musk win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢
- Will Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢
- Will Tutu win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?5¢
- Will Once Upon a Time in Harlem win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?16¢
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
American Doctor leads early trader sentiment in the 2027 Best Documentary Feature market at 37.5% implied probability, driven by its strong festival circuit performance, including Sundance and multiple audience awards, plus universal critical acclaim (100% on Rotten Tomatoes) for its timely focus on U.S. physicians aiding Gaza. Once Upon a Time in Harlem follows at 15.5%, buoyed by its historical resonance and Cannes acclaim after a 50-year delay, while One in a Million sits at 13.5% on the strength of its decade-spanning narrative. The broad field, with “Other” at 50%, reflects the early stage of the race ahead of the December shortlist and January nominations, where guild and critics’ awards will likely clarify momentum among these and additional contenders.