- Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?<1¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?7¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?18¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?18¢
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?48¢
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?9¢
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and its latest $852 billion private valuation underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward a 1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. Strong revenue momentum—roughly $2 billion monthly with enterprise revenue now exceeding 40 percent of the total—supports expectations that the company can command a substantial premium once public, especially given four-times-faster growth than Alphabet or Meta at comparable stages. CFO Sarah Friar’s mid-August 2026 all-hands remarks that OpenAI “will be a public company in 2027, or sooner if our business continues to inflect” have reinforced the high probability of an IPO occurring well before the December 2027 cutoff, while also highlighting the potential for further valuation expansion if margins improve. Traders appear to price in continued AI-sector leadership and scale advantages, tempered by the company’s ongoing cash burn and competitive pressures, resulting in the 1.5T+ bucket holding the clearest plurality of implied probability.