- Нетаньягу піде до кінця 2026 року?49¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Israel's October 27, 2026 general election represents the central catalyst for trader positioning on Netanyahu's tenure, with polls indicating his coalition faces significant headwinds and low support for his continued leadership. Recent coalition strains, including partner defections and disputes over Gaza policy and security arrangements, have narrowed his Knesset majority and prompted legal challenges over cabinet appointments. Ongoing military operations and diplomatic tensions add uncertainty, while Likud primaries and public demonstrations reflect internal party dynamics and voter sentiment. The market's near-even pricing on an exit by year-end captures these overlapping electoral, institutional, and security pressures ahead of the vote.