- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 8?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 8?16¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 8?52¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 8?29¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 8?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, drive the market's strong preference for a 24°C low on September 8 by projecting overnight temperatures stabilizing near 22–24°C amid partly cloudy skies, light northerly winds, and minimal precipitation. Shanghai's current pattern of gradual clearing after early September showers has limited radiative cooling, keeping minimums from dropping further while daytime highs hover around 30°C. This aligns with climatological norms for early autumn in the region, where typical lows range 22–25°C under similar synoptic conditions. Traders appear to weigh model consensus heavily, with the 51% implied probability on 24°C reflecting limited upside risk from any late forecast shifts before official China Meteorological Administration observations finalize the outcome.