- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 5?96¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and official guidance from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration point to a minimum temperature of 20°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on September 5 under clear to mostly clear skies and light northeast winds. Recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing near 19–21°C amid high pressure and minimal cloud cover, which supports efficient but moderate radiative cooling typical for early September. This aligns closely with climatological norms for the region, where average September minima hover around 17–20°C before the onset of stronger autumn cooling. With no incoming fronts, typhoon influences, or significant model spread in the latest runs, trader consensus heavily favors the 20°C outcome at 90% implied probability, while the slim odds on 19°C reflect minor uncertainty in exact overnight radiative losses. Updated model guidance and official briefings ahead of the overnight period represent the key near-term data points that could refine these probabilities.